Friday, January 29, 2010
Thursday, January 28, 2010
A sweet visualization...
It's weird (but awesome) how much money Canada has given to Haiti. Is it a government initiative? Are Canadians just really generous? What gives?
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
Why we need better economics education
Poll: Most say stimulus has not helped middle class
A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey released Wednesday morning indicates that 25 percent of the public thinks the stimulus has benefited the middle class.
One-third of the people questioned think the stimulus has helped low-income Americans, with just over four in 10 saying the plan has benefited business executives. A majority, 54 percent, think the stimulus has helped bankers and investors.
The pollster admits:
"Opinions on the economic stimulus bill are colored by the perception that it has helped fat cats, but not ordinary Americans," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. "It's possible that the belief that the stimulus bill helped bankers and CEOs is due to the public confusing the stimulus bill with the various bailout bills that were passed at roughly the same time last year."
Actually, I think this problem is ubiquitous. It is impossible to believe that the stimulus helped bankers if you know how the money is allocated. But after (1) giving every family in America an $800 tax credit, (2) shoring up states' Medicaid money, (3) stabilizing state education budgets, and (4) boosting unemployment aid and COBRA subsidies, Obama still has to fight off accusations that the stimulus was a handout for bankers. These 4 expenditures accounted for the vast majority of the stimulus money...especially what has been spent so far. Thanks to these four expenditures, millions of people are insured against health catastrophes, hundreds of thousands of extra teachers are in schools, and state and local taxes have stayed low...despite would-be calamitous budget shortfalls by state and local governments.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Static media about economics
Financial Graph & Art
I think what's interesting is that there is aviable company that sells only wall charts like the one shown here. How much more animations?
podcast on Taxing Cadillac Plans
Taxing Health Care: Planet Money (NPR economics show) podcast
On Planet Money, they interviewed an economist at MIT about why the Cadillac tax on expensive insurance plans is a good idea. During the podcast, and this was pretty awesome, the engineer in the studio started getting all upset. So, they had the economsit debate the sound engineer.
We do not have enough debate between highly-trained professional and absolute amateur with good common sense. I say that not becasue I side with tthe engineer (I don't), but because the economist is so hamstringed in his explanation. For example, he has trouble, because he assumes that cost savings from lower health insurance premiums from the employer will be passed on to the worker. This really will happen, after a while, in a free labor market, because even if the employers' profits rise in the short-term, after a while the workers will be able to bargain for higher wages or else other employers will move in (drawn by the higher profits) and bid up the workers' wages.
The economist assumes this mechanism, this "if...then..." chain of events, so deeply that he doesn't even notice he's making this chain of logic. But the worker just hears it as a "today/tomorrow" story between one worker and one employee. The possibility of currently non-existent, but potential employers moving in, and the long-term effects, don't occur to the engineer; they are outside the realm of what an individual can observe; they only show up in the big picture.
The biggest problem the worker has, though, is understanding the idea of someone being "at the margin" over whether to get a health treatment or not. He says, "I don't see why someone would go to the doctor, just because it's cheap." The margin is a hard-to-understand, suspicious concept, because, by definition, only a handful of people will be anywhere near the margin in a very large market. Almost everyone is very far on one side of the "buy/don't buy" curve.
This really changed the way I'm thinking about my documentary. I realize that, I, too, assume the margin. And I think I kind of address the margin, in the section with Anne having to return a video vs. studying, but I think the margin needs to be treated in its own section, which actually makes the point that I've just made: almost everyone is well on one side of the margin. Add to this the special feature of the market for roadspace that only like 10% of people at the margin have to quit driving for substantial gains, and I think I've got a convincing argument.
On Planet Money, they interviewed an economist at MIT about why the Cadillac tax on expensive insurance plans is a good idea. During the podcast, and this was pretty awesome, the engineer in the studio started getting all upset. So, they had the economsit debate the sound engineer.
We do not have enough debate between highly-trained professional and absolute amateur with good common sense. I say that not becasue I side with tthe engineer (I don't), but because the economist is so hamstringed in his explanation. For example, he has trouble, because he assumes that cost savings from lower health insurance premiums from the employer will be passed on to the worker. This really will happen, after a while, in a free labor market, because even if the employers' profits rise in the short-term, after a while the workers will be able to bargain for higher wages or else other employers will move in (drawn by the higher profits) and bid up the workers' wages.
The economist assumes this mechanism, this "if...then..." chain of events, so deeply that he doesn't even notice he's making this chain of logic. But the worker just hears it as a "today/tomorrow" story between one worker and one employee. The possibility of currently non-existent, but potential employers moving in, and the long-term effects, don't occur to the engineer; they are outside the realm of what an individual can observe; they only show up in the big picture.
The biggest problem the worker has, though, is understanding the idea of someone being "at the margin" over whether to get a health treatment or not. He says, "I don't see why someone would go to the doctor, just because it's cheap." The margin is a hard-to-understand, suspicious concept, because, by definition, only a handful of people will be anywhere near the margin in a very large market. Almost everyone is very far on one side of the "buy/don't buy" curve.
This really changed the way I'm thinking about my documentary. I realize that, I, too, assume the margin. And I think I kind of address the margin, in the section with Anne having to return a video vs. studying, but I think the margin needs to be treated in its own section, which actually makes the point that I've just made: almost everyone is well on one side of the margin. Add to this the special feature of the market for roadspace that only like 10% of people at the margin have to quit driving for substantial gains, and I think I've got a convincing argument.
Goals for this week
Finish my explanation on variable tolls.
Get in touch with people in D.C. (None of the folks last week responded.)
Meet with the documentary guy at pittsburgh filmmakers.
Find a film studies professor who might like to be on my committee.
Get in touch with people in D.C. (None of the folks last week responded.)
Meet with the documentary guy at pittsburgh filmmakers.
Find a film studies professor who might like to be on my committee.
Hayek/Keynes rap video
An awesome case of economics + new media = entertaining education about economics. Maybe it's a little dorky, but we really have a limit in how good the medicine can taste:
I am on the Keynes side, and here's why: although Hayek and the austrians give an explanation of why recessions happen, they don't really have advice about what to do during the recession. They are the guys in the corner, shaking their head, saying, "We told you so." But Keynes is the doctor who pumps your stomach. Plus, even Keynes advocates raising taxes and cutting spending (causing a government surplus) during the boom. He's only a party boy during the recession.
Should I create a rap video about congestion pricing?
Sunday, January 24, 2010
How to show changes
On Friday, I ran into a problem. I want to show two concepts: shifting demand causing changes in traffic flow; the way traffic flow changes over the course of a day. Even though it required some complicated animation, I decided to make it so my "supply/demand" graph (with flow on x axis and travel time on y axis) turns sideways, and then morphs into the "flow/time of day" graph. This is tricky, because what must be carried over is that the flow is the same concept, but the time is changed slightly: travel time is experienced by individual drivers, but time of day is an independent variable. Still, if you turn the travel time curve sideways, so it's sticking out of the time of day graph, I have decided that its curve is, in fact, accurate, as long as the personal travel time curve is in motion. Another good way to think about it is that I could have drawn the graph in 3dimensions, with the curve having a curve along the z axis coming out of the screen, and this would have been accurate, but instead I just showed 30 slices through the x axis per second.
This is cool. Here is something video can accomplish that static media cannot: showing changes in 3 variables clearly. This is a real, intellectual advantage that video has over older, more respectable forms of static media.
I will post some pic tures and clean up this post so it makes sense later.
This is cool. Here is something video can accomplish that static media cannot: showing changes in 3 variables clearly. This is a real, intellectual advantage that video has over older, more respectable forms of static media.
I will post some pic tures and clean up this post so it makes sense later.
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
My first two animations (very rough drafts)
Very Rough Draft: How Economists Think about Congestion from Lewis on Vimeo.
Actually, it turns out this first one starts sort of in the middle. I must have rendered it wrong. Oh well...it's a rough draft.
Sunday, January 17, 2010
Goals for this Week
Write narration for a third animation
Talk to Malloy and Cassing about being on my committee
Find someone at Pittsburgh Filmmakers interested in being on my committee.
Find someone in film studies interested in being on my committee
Clean up the previous animations
Email Mr. D.S. at Federal Highway Administration
Email several people in DC whom I could interview at the same time as Mr. D.S.
Start on my next learning project...learning to jerk or salsa or locksmith or something
Talk to Malloy and Cassing about being on my committee
Find someone at Pittsburgh Filmmakers interested in being on my committee.
Find someone in film studies interested in being on my committee
Clean up the previous animations
Email Mr. D.S. at Federal Highway Administration
Email several people in DC whom I could interview at the same time as Mr. D.S.
Start on my next learning project...learning to jerk or salsa or locksmith or something
Thursday, January 14, 2010
Presentation
On Tuesday, I worked all day on my animations to get them nice for my presentation with Prof. Wolfe. At 11:30 PM, I was getting sleepy, so I thought of that Five Hour Energy Drinks that folks are always talking about. "Does that stuff really work?" I thought.
I walked down to the One Stop and paid 3.25 in quarters for a bottle. Now I can testify that, yes, Five Hour Energy Drink really works. It is miraculous. I worked all night. I didn't get jittery or crazy. And then I went to bed at 5 AM and slept like a drunk baby. I woke up at 8:30 AM, not feeling too bad. Then I drank another bottle and felt great. I worked until my presentation at noon.
In the post-Five Hour Energy Drink world, is sleep passe? How much more GDP could the US have if we just drank Five Hour Energy Drink all day and all night? Would we take more vacay time, or would we just work and produce more? According to Paul Krugman, you need laws to get more vacay... Could we lower carbon emissions and obesity if everyone just woke up at 3 AM, drank a FHED, and then walked fifteen miles to work downtown from their houses in the suburbs? Is that the real solution to congestion?
I walked down to the One Stop and paid 3.25 in quarters for a bottle. Now I can testify that, yes, Five Hour Energy Drink really works. It is miraculous. I worked all night. I didn't get jittery or crazy. And then I went to bed at 5 AM and slept like a drunk baby. I woke up at 8:30 AM, not feeling too bad. Then I drank another bottle and felt great. I worked until my presentation at noon.
In the post-Five Hour Energy Drink world, is sleep passe? How much more GDP could the US have if we just drank Five Hour Energy Drink all day and all night? Would we take more vacay time, or would we just work and produce more? According to Paul Krugman, you need laws to get more vacay... Could we lower carbon emissions and obesity if everyone just woke up at 3 AM, drank a FHED, and then walked fifteen miles to work downtown from their houses in the suburbs? Is that the real solution to congestion?
Monday, January 11, 2010
Monday
Today I filmed a segment with my roommate Anne that will be incorporated into the illustration of how driving confers congestion externalities. It went pretty well. Maybe it should be a theme to have fashionable girls in my movie, to make it seem less dorky.
Do fashionable girls make everything less dorky? Is that what Vana White did to Wheel of Fortune?
Do fashionable girls make everything less dorky? Is that what Vana White did to Wheel of Fortune?
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Subtasks and Productivity
Today I spent a long time figuring out how to do several important things: recording on my VAIO with my USB mic, using filters in Soundbooth, using the transcribe function, and exporting from Illustrator to After Effects competently.
Anyway, I spent a really long time tooling around with the microphone. Computers do weird things for no reason. Eventually I solved the problem, but all in all I probably spent like 3 hours working on it. That is really too long, I decided. So for my other tasks, I pulled out my little notebook and started making subtasks.
When I'm working with computers and gadgets, there is some kind of curious little kid inside of me who bubbles up. He wants to understand each component of whatever process I'm doing to the fullest--always with the justification "just in case." That's fine...sometimes. But if you're inclined to do that all the time like I am, then you probably won't get the job done.
The purpose of my work time is to get a job done, not to enjoy myself--although I've chosen my work so that I stand a good chance of enjoying myself anyway. It's essential to mess around, even to do it a lot, but that should have its own reserved time. The division of labor works as much within a single person's time as between people in a community. So I'm happiest and most productive when I rationally specialize with my time. I realize gains from trade between the two types of workers I can be.
A good way to keep my head out of the clouds is by making little subtasks on a notebook. I call them "subtasks," because they are much more specific and smaller than regular tasks that you would put on your daily to-do list. I'll write "Figure out how best to record." Then underneath it, I'll write "test compressor defaults."
At any moment, I should be able to justify whatever I am doing according to a subtask. That keeps me on track. It lets me make rational decisions.
Anyway, I spent a really long time tooling around with the microphone. Computers do weird things for no reason. Eventually I solved the problem, but all in all I probably spent like 3 hours working on it. That is really too long, I decided. So for my other tasks, I pulled out my little notebook and started making subtasks.
When I'm working with computers and gadgets, there is some kind of curious little kid inside of me who bubbles up. He wants to understand each component of whatever process I'm doing to the fullest--always with the justification "just in case." That's fine...sometimes. But if you're inclined to do that all the time like I am, then you probably won't get the job done.
The purpose of my work time is to get a job done, not to enjoy myself--although I've chosen my work so that I stand a good chance of enjoying myself anyway. It's essential to mess around, even to do it a lot, but that should have its own reserved time. The division of labor works as much within a single person's time as between people in a community. So I'm happiest and most productive when I rationally specialize with my time. I realize gains from trade between the two types of workers I can be.
A good way to keep my head out of the clouds is by making little subtasks on a notebook. I call them "subtasks," because they are much more specific and smaller than regular tasks that you would put on your daily to-do list. I'll write "Figure out how best to record." Then underneath it, I'll write "test compressor defaults."
At any moment, I should be able to justify whatever I am doing according to a subtask. That keeps me on track. It lets me make rational decisions.
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
Filleting a Faulty Reason to Support C.P.
Activist and analyst Charles Komanoff explains why reduced pollution isn't a good reason to support congestion pricing. This makes sense: congestion pricing can actually raise daily traffic volumes, by spreading out the flow more evenly. The overall impact on pollution is negligable either way, as Komanoff explains:
Honesty makes for a good case. We don't want to get bogged down arguing about benefits that don't exist, when there are undeniable time savings at stake.
Rather, there are three reasons that in almost any congestion pricing plan, whether Kheel-Komanoff or Bloomberg or Ravitch, the value of the time savings will dwarf the air quality benefits:Earlier, he makes a point about car pollution:
The lesson for congestion pricing advocates is clear: give the "green" angle a rest. We're not in 1970 anymore. (If per-mile emission rates hadn't changed since Earth Day, the air quality benefits would be some 40 times greater, equaling or even surpassing the time savings.) Clean air no longer provides a powerful rationale for congestion pricing.
- On a regional basis, congestion pricing eliminates only a small percentage of VMT. Ditto, tailpipe emissions.
- Emissions from present-day cars (and, increasingly, trucks and buses) are low and trending lower. Thus, the vaunted improvements in traffic flow won't eliminate much car exhaust, because there isn’t much to begin with.
- Time savings from tolling gridlocked roads rise geometrically with congestion. A given percentage increase in speed saves six times as many minutes when the base speed is 5 mph as when it's 30 mph. Considering that slow speeds also imply high volumes, congestion pricing is practically ordained to generate big time savings -- particularly if the tolls are varied by time of day and day of week.
From a cost-benefit standpoint, the overwhelming reason to adopt congestion pricing in New York City -- in addition to providing a vital new revenue stream for public transit, of course -- is to enable people stuck in traffic to save time.
Cars now on the road are 30 to 50 times less polluting than in 1970. True, there are more cars being driven more miles, but even with a tripling of VMT (vehicle miles traveled), U.S. passenger vehicles today are probably putting out only a tenth as much air pollution as they did on the first Earth Day.
Honesty makes for a good case. We don't want to get bogged down arguing about benefits that don't exist, when there are undeniable time savings at stake.
Tuesday, January 5, 2010
Questions My Blog Will Treat
Micro:
How can you maximize productivity on a long-term, independent project?
How can you stay motivated on a long-term, independent project?
Is it easy to learn to use new technology?
What are good workflows/tips for independent video?
Macro:
What are the best ways to present abstract information in new media? Especially economics information.
Does learning economics knowledge change people's opinions?
How far can amateurs go in the new media?
How much of an impact can one citizen have if he/she puts his/her mind to a task?
How can you maximize productivity on a long-term, independent project?
How can you stay motivated on a long-term, independent project?
Is it easy to learn to use new technology?
What are good workflows/tips for independent video?
Macro:
What are the best ways to present abstract information in new media? Especially economics information.
Does learning economics knowledge change people's opinions?
How far can amateurs go in the new media?
How much of an impact can one citizen have if he/she puts his/her mind to a task?
Initial Conditions
So far, I haven't made much progress on production. To catch you up to speed:
Progress
Last summer, I read deeply on congestion pricing. I wrote a long article about congestion pricing that will be featured in the upcoming Pitt Political Review. I also flew to L.A. and interviewed two researchers at RAND, one person at the SR91 Express Lanes, one person at the Reason Foundation, and the editor of StreetsBlog L.A.
In the fall, I returned to classes. I tried to animate with my feeble knowledge of After Effects, which I learned in an animation class in Buenos Aires at Facultad Universidad de Cine, but I didn't get far. I finished my college classes on December 18, 2009.
Over the break, I got a membership at Lynda.com. It's media tutorial service. I watched all of the After Effects series and the Illustrator series.
Finances
I now have nine months left on my lease in Pittsburgh. I have a source of income from working 20 hours per week making maps and editing documents and spreadsheets for my father's business. I don't earn much, but rent and beer in Pittsburgh are very cheap, and my health insurance policy has a high deductible.
I also have $5500 in stocks I accumuluated mainly by investing in emerging markets. I plan to cash it all in and spend it all on my documentary. I have no college debt. Pitt has been generous with scholarship for me.
Equipment
I have a Sony HVR A1U HD camera, a tripod, a year-long HD access-pass to Pittsburgh Filmmakers, an Intuous 3 6"x8" Wacom tablet, a bunch of tapes, Adobe Master Collection, and a dream.
Experience
I have been working on videos in my free time since I was 12. From 2005-2007, I made the 47-minute documentary It's a Thick Book about problems with the Alabama State Constitution. Alabama Citizens for Constitutional Reform distributed it across the state on DVD and at mass screenings. Now it is shown in high school civics classes sometimes. That got me really pumped to make another politics/economics doc. I want to do this for a living as long as I can.
I have usually worked with a Panasonic DVX100A or B and edited on Final Cut Pro with Motion. For this project, I'm switching to Windows. I'm animating in After Effects and doing a rough-draft edit in Premiere. I will probably then do a final draft edit in AVID. This is my first long project in the HDV format and my first long Windows project.
Context
I am working on a B. Phil. (Bachelors of Philosophy) degree in Mathematics-Economics from University of Pittsburgh's University Honors College. My documentary is part of my thesis. My classes are all done. In April, I have to present a working product and a paper about media about economics before a committee.
Motivation
I really hate traffic congestion. I am interested in what new media can accomplish as far as informing the citizens in a republic about their policy options. I want America to be a pleasant, prosperous place to live.
Progress
Last summer, I read deeply on congestion pricing. I wrote a long article about congestion pricing that will be featured in the upcoming Pitt Political Review. I also flew to L.A. and interviewed two researchers at RAND, one person at the SR91 Express Lanes, one person at the Reason Foundation, and the editor of StreetsBlog L.A.
In the fall, I returned to classes. I tried to animate with my feeble knowledge of After Effects, which I learned in an animation class in Buenos Aires at Facultad Universidad de Cine, but I didn't get far. I finished my college classes on December 18, 2009.
Over the break, I got a membership at Lynda.com. It's media tutorial service. I watched all of the After Effects series and the Illustrator series.
Finances
I now have nine months left on my lease in Pittsburgh. I have a source of income from working 20 hours per week making maps and editing documents and spreadsheets for my father's business. I don't earn much, but rent and beer in Pittsburgh are very cheap, and my health insurance policy has a high deductible.
I also have $5500 in stocks I accumuluated mainly by investing in emerging markets. I plan to cash it all in and spend it all on my documentary. I have no college debt. Pitt has been generous with scholarship for me.
Equipment
I have a Sony HVR A1U HD camera, a tripod, a year-long HD access-pass to Pittsburgh Filmmakers, an Intuous 3 6"x8" Wacom tablet, a bunch of tapes, Adobe Master Collection, and a dream.
Experience
I have been working on videos in my free time since I was 12. From 2005-2007, I made the 47-minute documentary It's a Thick Book about problems with the Alabama State Constitution. Alabama Citizens for Constitutional Reform distributed it across the state on DVD and at mass screenings. Now it is shown in high school civics classes sometimes. That got me really pumped to make another politics/economics doc. I want to do this for a living as long as I can.
I have usually worked with a Panasonic DVX100A or B and edited on Final Cut Pro with Motion. For this project, I'm switching to Windows. I'm animating in After Effects and doing a rough-draft edit in Premiere. I will probably then do a final draft edit in AVID. This is my first long project in the HDV format and my first long Windows project.
Context
I am working on a B. Phil. (Bachelors of Philosophy) degree in Mathematics-Economics from University of Pittsburgh's University Honors College. My documentary is part of my thesis. My classes are all done. In April, I have to present a working product and a paper about media about economics before a committee.
Motivation
I really hate traffic congestion. I am interested in what new media can accomplish as far as informing the citizens in a republic about their policy options. I want America to be a pleasant, prosperous place to live.
My First Post
Hello Americans and Others,
My name is Lewis. I'm making a documentary that explains road pricing a.k.a. congestion pricing a.k.a. value pricing a.k.a. congestion taxes a.k.a. variable tolling. I thought it would be cool to blog the process of making the documentary as a real-time historical record. I also thought it would motivate me to work better.
This blog should be interesting to: friends, family, young activists, members of the livable streets movement, people who make a living commenting on new media, people who make a living talking about how young people/creative things will revitalize Pittsburgh, and people who hate traffic.
I will also post on all news related to road pricing in the United States of America and abroad.
My name is Lewis. I'm making a documentary that explains road pricing a.k.a. congestion pricing a.k.a. value pricing a.k.a. congestion taxes a.k.a. variable tolling. I thought it would be cool to blog the process of making the documentary as a real-time historical record. I also thought it would motivate me to work better.
This blog should be interesting to: friends, family, young activists, members of the livable streets movement, people who make a living commenting on new media, people who make a living talking about how young people/creative things will revitalize Pittsburgh, and people who hate traffic.
I will also post on all news related to road pricing in the United States of America and abroad.
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